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2023-12-15
According to the latest IATA cargo forecast, global air cargo demand is expected to increase by 4.5% next year, even though the industry faces revenue pressures due to declining rates. This growth follows a challenging period, as global airfreight demand dropped by 3.8% this year. The International Air Transport Association’s analysis reflects both improving trade conditions and the market’s gradual recovery after several difficult years.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted a 3.5% rise in global trade next year. Building on this outlook, IATA expects cargo tonne kilometers (CTKs) to expand in all major regions. African carriers could see demand rise by 1.5%, Asia Pacific by 3.6%, Europe by 4.1%, Latin America by 7.7%, the Middle East by 12.3%, and North America by 2.1%.
This widespread increase in air cargo volumes highlights renewed optimism in global logistics networks. Although trade activity has remained moderate, airfreight logistics are benefiting from shifting supply chain strategies and the continued normalization of belly cargo capacity in passenger aircraft.
IATA’s senior macroeconomist Rachel Yuting Fan explained that the faster growth in air cargo demand is based on a low comparative base. “The air cargo sector declined sharply over the past two years,” she noted. “The expected 4.5% growth in 2025 reflects recovery rather than expansion.”
She also emphasized several influencing factors—such as GDP performance, inflation rates, interest rate trends, US dollar strength, unemployment levels, jet fuel prices, and China’s pace of recovery. Fan added that geopolitical stability and limited conflict escalation remain part of IATA’s baseline assumptions.
Despite growing cargo volumes, IATA projects that total air cargo revenues will fall by 17.3% year-on-year in 2024 to around $111.4 billion. The decline is mainly due to a sharp 20.9% drop in cargo yields, driven by the rapid return of belly capacity in passenger aircraft and continued trade stagnation.
However, even with this reduction, cargo yields remain historically strong. Between 2019 and 2023, yield fluctuations were dramatic: -8.2% in 2019, +54.7% in 2020, +25.9% in 2021, +7% in 2022, and -32.2% in 2023. This volatility underscores how the global air cargo market is adapting to changing transport dynamics and pricing structures.
Although revenues will dip, Fan highlighted that the airfreight sector is still performing about 11% above pre-pandemic levels. In 2023, global cargo revenues stood at $134.7 billion, down 34.8% from 2022 due to weaker demand and improved ocean shipping reliability.
As ocean freight stability and passenger travel recovery reshape capacity availability, airlines are strategically rebalancing their networks. Many carriers are optimizing freighter utilization and integrating smart cargo systems to maintain profitability even with lower yields.
According to IATA’s outlook, air cargo will account for roughly 13% of total airline revenues next year—closely aligned with 2019’s 12% share. This indicates that while the cargo segment has normalized after the pandemic boom, it remains a vital contributor to airline performance and global trade logistics.
With a strong focus on digital cargo tracking, fuel efficiency, and e-commerce fulfillment, the air cargo industry continues to evolve. Even as revenues fluctuate, structural improvements in cargo operations, network optimization, and logistics partnerships will sustain long-term competitiveness.
In summary, IATA’s projection of 4.5% air cargo growth reflects a cautious yet confident recovery. The sector’s resilience lies in its adaptability—balancing volume growth, yield pressure, and market realignment. Although 2025 will bring challenges, the global air cargo sector remains a core enabler of international trade, linking industries, economies, and consumers across continents.
Resource: https://www.aircargonews.net/data/iata-predicts-a-4-5-rise-in-air-cargo-volumes-in-2024/
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